27 Feb Evening Session

     Didn't thought i will get involved in any trading tonight as it seemed to me that Del Potro will easily win against Tipsarevic. I was following the match, the commentators were saying that Del Potro looked yesterday very tired, and he never played in this tournament during the day in the heat. So i thought maybe he won't win so easy. I backed Tipsarevic in the first set at 2-1 at the odds 4.4. He immediately broke serve, i waited for the hold then hedged the profit. At the end of the first set I was +150 Euro, but Del Potro was looking very bad, he was struggling, looked like he can't breath, he was trying to end the points very quickly hitting either an unforced error or a winner. So i took 100 of my green from Del Potro and backed Tipsa at the odds of 12. During the second set I had plenty of opportunities the green up for 250+ but again my biggest problem: GOT GREEDY !!! Just 50 euro here.

     Couldn't sleep and I saw some matches with a decent liquidity in Monterrey. So i set myself a challenge: trade on a market where i have no info about the players, never heard of any of them, with small stakes obviously. I was interested in 3 things only: starting price, to see who was the favorite, who will the market favor, score obviously, and the odds.

     Pous Tio vs Detoni, this one was very interesting. First of all let me ask you one question: Pous Tio leads with 6-3 5-3 plus serve, would you give Detoni odds of 100 ? I wouldn't that's for sure. I mean it's not like Caroline Wozniacki plays against Detoni. I backed Detoni with 10 euro. She broke serve held, etc it was now tie break. I intended to wait until the tie break is finished then hedge the profit, all i had to lose were 10 euro. But Detoni took the lead in the tie break 3-1 and the odds became quite acceptable 1.24. (+230 euro from a stake of 10 is not bad is it?) Tried to hedge but my bet was unmatched, then tried again at 1.21 unmatched again AHHHHH low liquidity market. By the time I tried at 1.17 score became 3-2 and the odds were now unacceptable. Unlucky for me, Detoni lost the tie break.

      In the other match, i did some scalping and lay the server as there were many breaks.

      So +150 euro for a night without expectations are more then welcomed. Cheers !

 

26 Feb

     Last day of the second week. Finals day. First of all I must say i really don't like that the finals are played in the same time. Last week ATP final in Rotterdam was played at 16:00 and WTA Dubai 16:30. Today ATP final in Dubai 16:00 and WTA Doha 16:30.

     Wozniacki vs Zvonareva. At the beginning of the match i thought it would be a straight sets victory for the danish player. Didn't backed her before the start as the price was too low and i wanted to see how the start. Well it was obvious she had problems serving in the wind and she's making way too many unforced errors, so i switched to Zvonareva. Looked for a nice entry point, which was right after she broke back in the second set, and backed her.

     So the profit for the second week is +882 not bad, but could have been at least double if i would have traded well the matches: Radwanska v Safarova, Chela v Schwank.
  

25 Feb

     Red day today. Missed read all the matches. I was expecting a very comfortable win for Djokovic, despite the fact that he had problems in the previous rounds, i thought he would raise his level in the semies. Well, he did but only after he lost the first set. I made the mistake to give a chance to Bartoli in the second set, even though it was clear that she's being outmatched by the danish player. I really thought Jankovic has good chances against Zvonareva so i've backed her before the start. Too bad, because i could have taken her at a much better price after she dropped the first set. 

24 Feb

     A few interesting matches for today. I've backed Bartoli before the start as I was really impressed by her consistent game, and her victory from the previous round against Peer where she dropped just 1 game. Wozniacki had a slow start against Penneta, but as soon as she looked signs of coming back I backed her to win the match in straight sets. She had no problems in second set. Hantuchova v Zvonareva was again a very good match for trading. I backed Hatuchova just after she lost the first set. I thought that first set was very tight, she was looking good and had more to offer. I didn't traded the last set as i moved to the match between Simon vs Gasquet, and I felt sorry as it seemed to offer more nice opportunities.

     Jankovic vs Zakopalova. I wanted to back Jankovic, but I missed the first 10 minutes of the game. When i came back the price was already 1.15, way to low for a back. Then in the second set Jankovic felt really bad and I layed her. I thought that even if she will continue the match she will need a few points to recover and the price will dramatically drop. Well as soon as she came back on the field she broke serve. I left the match running hoping she will retire.

23 Feb

     Well, today i have traded the most unusual match i have ever traded: Chela vs Schwank. One day before the match starting price was 1.4-3.4. Well, before the match went in play, there were some rumors, that the match is fixed, that Chela is going to retire, he wants to prepare for the Davis Cup etc, so the odds were now 3.4-1.4. I don't buy that, if the match is fixed for sure not all the internet will know about it. So I backed Chela with 350 euro at the odds of 3.4 at 2-2. He was looking good, holding comfortable, didn't even gave 1 break point first set. I was hoping the odds will dramatically drop after the first set, but it actually didn't even moved. Second set started, Chela broke in the beginning of the set, hold serve, broke again, he was 4-0 in the second set, just two games away from taking the match. I already saw big green in front of my eye, but still the odds were again wrong. I backed Schwank just enough to cover my losses and have a few profit. 5-1 and Schwank was serving, odds on Schwank were somewhere between 5-10 (couldn't even tell the market was really crazy) instead of 100. That seemed to be the best opportunity to hedge my profit. But i didn't, i thought it was going to be just a waste of money, Chela didn't gave 1 bp all match, he's going to win this easy. Well, Schwank took 3 games in a row,it was now 5-4, Chela was going to serve for the match and the odds were 2-2. This is just insane, i'm not going to give half of my profit just because the market is crazy. At that time the match was stopped for about 5 minutes, having no video stream i had to assume that Chela asked for medical time out. Match resumed, Chela was broken, then Schwank held serve, at 6-5 odds were 1.1-11, then Chela retired. Crazy !!! I don't want to comment if the match was or wasn't fixed but for sure it was the most crazy market i've ever traded.

  

22 Feb

     Two matches that ended with a big red. First one: Blake vs Becker, don't know why but i just don't trust Blake so far. He came back after a long injury, having mixed results. I didn't expected such an easy victory against Becker, so as soon as Becker broke first in the second set i backed him. He was broken back next game, and i had to get out with a big red.

     Second match was Llodra vs Djokovic. Llodra seemed to be in a good form, having some nice victories this season, plus he won they're last meeting at the end of last year in Paris. This was Djokovic's first game after winning Australian Open, so i was hoping he would be a bit rusty. Well big mistake for me, as the match was one sided only.

     I compensated this losses with a nice green on Cibulkova. As soon as she was broken in the first set i backed her with full stakes. It is known the fact that she doesn't like the serve, she's much better on return, so a lay looked like a good option. I hedged to profit after she took the first set.

21 Feb

     Well, looking at the profit for today, one could say it has been a pretty good day. Actually it was a horrible day, and i want to take it out of my head as soon as possible.

     Started the day good. I was on Petzschner again, just after he lost the first set. Took out half of my stakes when they got in the tie break and then i left it run till the end. Dimitrov vs Gasquet was a nice gift. Odds on Gasquet raised till 2.3 before the match, because of the rumours regarding his fitness. Waited first game, he looked fine and backed him. It was a very easy game, and the difference of class was obvious. Made a nice profit on Bartoli, who seemed more consistent and making less unforced errors.

     Then came the horror match: Safarova vs Radwanska. At 5-1 first set for Radwanska, Safarova's price was 13.5. Couldn't go any lower then that even if Radwanska would have taken the first set, so i backed her with 100 euro. Well, Safarova came back strongly making 5-5. At that point i hedged my profit for about 500 euro.
She took the first set and i was a little disappointed because I sold so fast. Somewhere at the end of the second set Radwanska took a medical time out. Price on here went up, and i put all the profit that i had from Safarova on Radwanska thinking that, as soon as she get's back on the court price will get back to normal. Well, it didn't and immediately Safarova broke. Had the chance to get some of my green back when Safarova was serving for the set and was 0-30 but I took only with 1/4 stakes. So, a match that could have brought me 500 euro, ended with 90. Huge difference, and it was mind blowing. That explains that big red that i had on Schuttler.

    

Day 7

     Last day of the first week was quite. Couldn't find a decent value or a good entry point so I just did some scalping.

    All in all it was a good first week, had a few difficult moments, glad I stayed calm and sticked to my strategy. Profit at the end of first week +1370.

Day 6 One missed click !

     You'll see how one missed click transformed a day that was supposed to be awesome in just a regular day.

     Started the day very confident, again I was on Jankovic who was the underdog against Stosur. I really like going on Jankovic when she's the underdog. Yes, she was in poor form since ages, but she proved so many times that she has value. Plus the victory against Kanepi gave her a big boost of confidence. I backed her at the beginning of the match and got out after she took first set.

     Kendrick - Raonic. I was a bit tired, couldn't focus very well because there was noise in the room and then i made the mistake. Final set after Kendrick saved 1 bp, i was waiting for him to save the second one. That was supposed to be my entry point. I was waiting, ready to confirm that bet with the price that i wanted to take.Well he didn't saved the bp, but by mistake I clicked confirm. So instead of tacking the odds of 10 i took 4 with full stakes. Huge difference ! Saved half of that red when Kendrick had a few bp opportunities.

     No problem. I will get that money back in a second. I moved to the match between Kleybanova and Penneta , they were playing in the same time with the previous match. And without watching any of them playing, i backed Kleybanova. She was playing very bad and she was trashed in 2 sets. Big red there also.

     Took a small break and came back for the evening session. Missed Tursunov in the opening set, then Melzer took easy the second set. So at the beginning of the third set the odds were 1.4-3.4. Well if you consider that the starting odds were 1.6-2.4 and the fact the Melzer is one of the most inconsistent player on tour, the odds are pure value. So I took Tursunov and got out at 3-0.

Day 5

     As I was really impressed with Wickmayer's game against Li, I decided to back her before the match. Big mistake ! After the match went in play her odds drifted, and instead of tacking 2.26 i took 2.04. Lucky for me she took the first set and i got out.

     Kanepi vs Jankovic was a very good match for trading. Jankovic lost the first set and her odds locked really good plus she is a real fighter. As we all know Kanepi loses her focus very quickly and has a lot of ups and downs all the time. So a lay seemed like a good option as the price was cheap. I got out in the third set when the game became a drama.

Day 4

     Much better !!! Started very well today. I really like to go against Gulbis when he's a favorite. Often proved he can chocke when you don't expect plus he was really out of form. He lost in three sets to Becker at Australian Open and didn't played since. Market was against Petzchner even though he was holding comfortable which gave me an even better price. So I layed the latvian big time, and I made a nice green there.

     Chakvetadze vs Wozniacki - here i was a little lucky as i didn't knew the medical problems that Chakvetadze had in the previous match. I looked at the prices after the first set and I saw odds of 50 on her. Is this insane ? Is something happening ? Layed Wozniacki at the start of the second set. Chakvetadze started very well  the second set taking a 3-0 lead. At that point I got out with half stakes and i was waiting for her to take the set so i can hedge. She fainted on the filed a 5-3. Felt really sorry for her and form my green as i didn't had the chance to hedge my profit.

    Backed Wickmayer after she took the second set. Thought that she must feel really confident after saving 4 match points. Also I was really confident that Wawrinka can defeat Hanescu. He had a slow start but then came back really strong. Lost the first set in a tie break. That was the point when i've backed him, and I hedge for profit after a comfortable second set, as it was to late and the odds were really acceptable. 

Day 3

     A lot of ups and downs for today. I realized it's very important for me to start the day well, start with a green even a small one, takes o bit of pressure of my shoulders. Well today I started bad. After loosing the first set to 0, I thought that the odds on Schoorel are nice value. I mean, just a couple of decent holds would brought me a nice profit. Well, he got broken in the opening game of the second set. Didn't even had the chance to reduce my red. Waste of money !
  
     Petkovic vs Kreber was a good match for trading. A lot of ups and down, Petkovic was looking great in some moments, awful in other moments, made a nice green here.

     Then i made the same mistake. After loosing the first set i backed Piare, i thought the game has more to show, he defetead Simon in Rotterdam. Again i was waiting for some decent holds. He was broken in the opening game. It was like a deja vu. This time i was even more angry because of Paire's atitude. He was acting like a child on the field, like a clown.

     Then i started making rookie mistakes. Completely missed read the match between Zebalos vs Andujar. I backed Zebalos when he had breaked Andujar, but immediately after he lost serve and i got out.

     Fortunately I saved the day with a nice green on Benneateau. I backed him after he lost first set, as the odds were to high. He broke in the 7th game, and after he took the second set i got out.

     Even though i ended with just a small red, it was a very disappointing day. After those failed trades i became very frustrated and very angry making a lot of mistakes, making rushed decisions. Need to focus on this part of my trading. I have to stay calm after a big loss, or after a series of losses.

Day 2

     Again I started the day well chose the match between Scheepers vs Kirilenko. Kirilenko looked awful, making a lot of unforced errors, basically she was beating herself. Chose well my entry point and even though I used small stakes, I made a nice profit.

     Then I moved to the match between Zhang vs Shvedova where i completely missed my entry point. As soon as i backed Shvedova she lost her serve, Zhang took the set and I got out with a big red there.

     Third match was also form Dubai Kleybanova vs Pavyuchenkova. Completely opposite to the previous match, as soon as I backed Kleybanova she broke serve, and then she made 4 games in a row, and even though I made a 150% profit, i am a little angry because i got out to quick. If i would have waited one more game my green could have been at least double. And I have every reason to wait at least one more game as Kleybanova was on fire at that moment.

     Another interesting match was Bartoli vs Date Krumm. Bartoli was leading 5-2, Date Krumm came back and made 5-5. That was my entry point. Krumm broke serve and i could have greened for 100% profit. But I chose to wait for Krumm to serve for the match, and she got broken. In tie break I could have either go for a huge green or a huge red. I chose to leave the market and i made a good decision as Krumm lost a thrilling tie-break.

First Day

      First day since I started to write about my trades. Day started with the Pattaya's Open final between Daniela Hantuchova and Sara Errani. I watched Daniela's previous match against Zvonareva and she looked very confident and was in good form, plus a win against nr. 2 gave her a big boost of confidence. So I backed her winning in straight sets before the match. She started very well winning the first set 6-1 but in the opening game of the second set she faced a break point. That was the moment when i got out leaving all my profit on Daniela.

      Second match was Soderling vs Tsonga. My entry point was at the beginning of the second set. Tsonga didn't looked bad in the first set, except for that game were he was broken, he was serving first and the price was very good. I've held my nerves when he was 0-30 on his own service, the odds were nearly my exit point. After that game Tsonga broke and i hedge after the third set.

     Last game that I wanted to trade was Verdasco vs Raonic. Verdasco looked very good in the previous matches winning in straight sets all his opponents including Del Potro and Karlovic. I was very impressed that Verdasco won 7-5 second set against Karlovic who put 91% first serve in. But the match was played at a late hour, and I couldn't stay up so late. I left my stake though and obviously lost it.

     All in all it was good day with a +220 euro profit.