Miami second round

     Things look much better now, yesterday I had such a good day, all my trades were successful. Looking forward for today's matches, were supposed to get live streams on several matches which will definitely help. Let's talk about last night matches:

     Bullucci vs Blake. Price after the brazilian took very comfortable the first set was 1.17, a must lay considering that the starting prices were 1.9-2.1. Just a couple of decent service games would bring the market back to it's true value but i wanted more. Bullucci often proves he can't play well under pressure and he was serving last in the second set. At 5-4 when serving to stay in the set Bellucci made a double fault, i assume he also made some unforced errors and gave Blake 1 break point. I took that price with 1/3 of my profit to get my original stake back and waited for the break which came immediately. Greened after Blake hold serve in the third set. And again when Bellucci was serving to stay in the set i put most of my profit on Blake and stayed in for the tie break. The american took an early mini break which gave me a much better price to green.

     Bartoli vs Morita. Often when an average player wins a tournament loses in the first round of the next tournament. Bartoli didn't won Indian Wells but the presence in the final is an excellent performance for her. Price was to high though for a lay. Waited for the second set when price on Bartoli was somewhere under 1.1. I was also helped by a long delay in the second set, where a lot of people assumed Bartoli took a medical time out. I have no ideea if that happened but price on Bartoli went up to 2.7.

     Bacsinszky vs Cibulkova. Layed Cibulkova in the second set on her serve at 15-30 as the price was excellent 1.08 then gradually hedged my profit. In the third set Cibulkova broke first and again price dropped way to much considering she lost her serve in the second set two times.

     Pavlyuchenkova vs Szavay. Market overreacted after the russian was broken in her opening service game. Price went up from 1.37 to 1.7 for just 1 game. Took that price and greened after the russian took a 3-1 lead. Should have stayed in the market for 1 more game but i got involved in another match and i didn't wanted to repeat my mistake from the match between Becker vs Granolleres.

Miami First Rounds

     It's been a while since my last post, I was going though some difficult times, made some big mistakes but the most important is that I realised what I was doing wrong and I didn't panic. After a big red day i was very careful with my trading for the next couple of days. It would have been much harder to recover mentally after a few consecutive days with unsuccessful trading. So for the next two days I lowered my stakes, tried to chose my entry points as safe as possible and stayed in the market just a couple of minutes max / trade.Things have improved, results came immediately.
    
     The men's final from Indian Wells Nadal vs Djokovic had very big potential for some successful trading. I didn't made any profit or loss but considering that i entered with 800 euros on Djokovic 2-0, i am very happy with the result, i did well to recover that loss. My entry point was when the Djoker was leading 2-1 in the first set, and i was hoping that the price will drop considerably if he would take the first few points on Nadal's serve. Well i was very wrong, especially because I staked to much on a market without decent liquidity. So I covered my bet on the match betting and first set winner. Could have ended with profit though, but I wasn't expecting such a bad performance by the spaniard in the final set.

     Some interesting matches from Miami's first round matches:

     Errani vs Shvedova. Traded only the last set, I layed Errani at 1.12 when she was leading in the final set with 2-0. The match was very tight and balanced, the odds were very acceptable, so a lay seemed to be the best options. I had no doubt that somewhere in that set I would get a better price, Errani was making 95% first serves in and it would have been almost impossible to continue that way.

     Becker vs Granolleres. I backed Becker before the match started. He broke in the first game, then hold and the odds became very acceptable, but I was trading in the same time another match, and i thought that Becker will easily hold his serves.

     Tatishvili vs Govortsove. I have no idea what happened in this match but there were some incredible mistakes and values in the odds especially in the second set. Didn't used any particularly strategy, just took the value odds and greened when the odds came back to normal.

     Safina vs Dokic. Price drifted on Safina from 1.9 in the morning to 1.56 before the match. No doubt the market loved her so in case of a break the odds would go crazy. Backed her before the start of the match and greened after the first game. Not a bad profit for just 1 game.

Indian Wells Mid Week

     Today I am very upset with myself. I had such a good start of the week and continued so well during the mid week to ruin most part of it in one day, in a couple of hours of greediness and inattention. Everythink was going to well, didn't had a red day in a couple of .... weeks, and I wanted more and more, got to greedy, that's probably the reason for my friday's night trading. In a way i am glad this happened, brought me  back with my feets to the ground. I am only going to talk about friday night matches:

    Gasquet vs Djokovic. It was clear to me who's going to be the winner of this match, but the starting price on Djokovic was way too low. Gasq. As soon as the djouet showed some good tennis this week, nice serving, impressive victory against Roddick in the previous round so i expected to put a fight here. Starting price on Djokovic was to low so I was waited for a better price. I soon as the djoker was broken i backed him greened after the first set.

     Wickmayer vs Bartoli. Situation here was kind of simple. It was a very one sided match and I was on the wrong side. Nevertheless i had the chance to make a nice profit in the beginning of the second set. Wickmayer broke first and if I would have exit the market at that point i could have ended with a decent profit, but noooooo ... I waited for the hold, Wickmayer didn't served bad in the first set, she started the set better this is the comeback moment.  It wasn't, the french broke back immediately and since that point she took the lead, never had the chance to make profit, just reduce my red.

     Federer vs Wawrinka. Why do I even bother to trade this match. It doesn't have any logic: Federer good form Wawrinka good form Federer wins, Federer good form Wawrinka bad form Federer wins, Federer bad form Wawrinka very good form Federer wins. Is it fear ? is it respect ? is it the game style ? I don't know what it is, but Wawrinka always playes so bad when hes facing Federer. (same siuation with Troicki and Djokovic). At least in the first matches Wawrinka was putting some fight, but in the recent matches it was all Federer. I layed Federer 2-0 at the beginning of the second set, and I had the chance to make a decent profit two times when Wawrinka was leading 1-0 and 2-1. But again I wanted more, and I was waiting for a 0-30 or 15-30 to get a better price which never happened. Recoverd a part of my stake as Wawrinka didn't showed any signs of comming back.

     And then after two mistakes in a row .... i had to make a third one. I was expecting Sharapova to make a good match, give some hard time to Wozniacki. But the match was scheduled too late and i didn't stayed up. What have I done ? placed a bet on Sharapova to recover today's losses. I'm not a trader anymore i became a gambler now ? I am glad because Sharapova lost, otherwise i probably would have made this mistake again. I knew this isn't the best way to recover the losses but had to be reminded. Lesson learned !

Indian Wells - Going against the market

     It's one of the strategies that I like the most, but I have to be really careful when using this strategy, and I have to be comfortable being on red most of the time. When everybody is backing one player, the value is on the other player. However, the player that i am backing must be strong enough to make at least one break, otherwise, as the market is against me, i don't believe i could get a significant profit. Also when i am using this strategy i am willing to lose all my stake in case the match goes against me, as i won't get a decent price to hedge my loss, better let the match run and hope for a comeback.

    We had a very good example yesterday: Malisse vs Devverman. Early in the morning odds were 1.9-2.1 which in my opinion reflected the real chances of the players. At the start of the match odds drifted 1.6-2.6. Devverman served first and took the lead 2-1. At this moment odds on the indian were 2.7 which mean (considering the starting prices and the fact that he was leading) the market was against him. Backed him and greened after the first set. Second set started but the market changed it's opinion everybody was on the indian now. Odds on Malisse at the beginning of the second set were 3.3. After he held serve (yes it wasn't a very comfortable services game) odds raised to 3.5.Backed Malisse and again I was rewarded immediately as the belgian broke in the second game. Waited for the hold then greened again.

Indian Wells Day 3 and 4

     Saturday was a quite day, as we all know Betfair was up and down for hours so i decided to take the day off. Went out had some fun a few drinks, when I came back home i was a little drunk, opened betfair every think looked ok, there where some matches playing at that time so i started to trade. Glad I didn't do anythink stupid.

     Sunday night started bad again. Missed read 4 out of 5 matches, but i managed to limit my losses. Backed Chela at the beginning of the second set, odds were around 4.5-5. Except for that game when he was broken, he looked solid on serve plus he took Petz on deuce a couple of times in the first set. Petzschner broke serve fist time in the second set, and was serving two times for the match. Seemed like this day is going to be a disaster ! but Chela turned the match and saved my day.

     Becker vs Bellucci. Again a missed read match, this time I didn't had the chance to limit my loss. Except for the first game Bellucci played solid tennis (or Becker was playing poor), didn't gave any other breaks opportunities, also in the tie break of the second set he was the on to take the lead.

     Errani vs Clijsters. Layed Kim on serve in the second set, don't know what happened but she was making a lot of double faults. Clearly something is not right with her serve, also in the previous match she made a couple of double faults (it's going to be an interesting match against Bartoli, hope for a tight one also) . I greened after the second set but left most of my green on Errani, I was hoping for a tight final set.

     Again Gulbis a favorite against an inform player, again I went against him. After the first set I had a really nice green, but I thought Gulbis will collapse as he often does after he losses the first set so i left the match running. Gulbis broke first in the second set leading 6-5 plus serve so i switched sides. But he was broken to 0 immediately. Didn't wanted to take my chances in the tie break so i hedged.  

    

Indian Wells Day 2

      There's nothing I hate more then to start the day with a big red. I still can't understand how i could trust Ramirez Hidalgo, he's the type of tennis player that i hate the most. My entry point was at 4-3 after he made a rebreak and a decent hold. Not a bad entry point, but the mistake was I didn't accepted the loss and I left the match run. Mello took the first set, again I could have hedged my loss, but guess what I did ? Layed some more. Very smart move Daniel. Ramirez was broken in the first game of the second, and the odds became 1.06.

 

     Zahlavova vs Kvitova. I backed Barbora in the second set when she was leading 2-1. First set was tight enough, Kvitova wasn't holding serve very comfortable, and the price was very good. I gradually hedge my profit as the second set was going in my favor. 

 

     Cornet vs Pironkova. I intended to back Pironkova before the start of the match, but by the time I opened the market, price already drifted. Was a little lucky because she was broken in the opening game. Then I layed Cornet at a better price, and layed some more after she took the first set, and greened after the second set.

     Benneteau vs Lopez, this match was kind of funny. Starting price was 2.6 - 1.6. Benneteau was having problems in every service game he had, faced a couple of break points, while Lopez didn't dropped more then 2 points on serve. But still to give Benneteau odds of 2.7 considering the starting prices, when he's 5-4 against a serve and voley playing under pressure is wrong. Benneteau broke immediately and I greend up. Not a bad profit for one game :). 

     

   

Indian Wells Day 1

     A nice start of the tournament for me, liquidity is getting better but I still have problems with that late scoreboard update, plus all that speculation about injury's when the play is suspended more then usual. Hope that soon we'll have live coverage for this tournament also.

     U. Randwanska vs Jovanovski was a very good match for trading. Layed the first set winner, green after the second set, then I left the match, but as i saw there were a lot of opportunities in the final set also. Nice match !

     Smyczek vs Marchenco. I was on Marchenco from the start of the match. Couldn't understand why the local boy is set a favorite here, the difference between them is 60 places in the ATP rankings, and we're not talking here about some big talent, Smyczek is a very regular tennis player.  Greened after the first set.

     De Voest vs Pere Riba. Well, wasn't I unlucky here ! De Vest took a very tight first set and the odds were 1.1. This is a must lay ! In a few seconds odds became 1.07, then I layed some more. Well the reason for this situation was because Riba was getting medical treatment and he retired. Waste of money.

     Medina vs Paszek. Here I can understand why Paszek was set a favorite, but to give Medina the odds of 3.5 is just wrong, it's a must bet. I'm just sorry i didn't had more confidence in this bet, because it was a very nice gift. Greened up after the first set.

  

Indian Wells Qualifying Rounds

     I made the mistake to trade the qualifying rounds of the master series of the year. Why was it a mistake ? First of all the liquidity in most of the matches was below acceptable, second the official scoreboard is very slow, around 10 seconds behind. Found myself in a lot of situation where the player that i was backing already lost the point before the scoreboard updated the results.

     Some interesting matches: Cirstea vs Lisicki. Starting odds were in the favor of Lisicki, in my opinion the odds were about right, romanian player has a lot of potential, but she's going through some poor form for a long time. Cirstea started the match took the first game comfortable, the when reciving she had 30-0. By the way market was moving, I thought it's already 40-0 so I rushed to back the romanian at 1.8. It was actually 30-15, then Lisicki held serve, and since then first set was going in one side only. Second set started the same way Cirstea struggling to hold serve, Lisicki looked more comfortable. I got out at 3-3, for a -350 red. Lisicki serve two times to win the match at 5-4 and 6-5 but was broken every time. They went to tie break and there i backed Cirstea again. She took the second set, then in the third set she took the first two opening games and i reduced my red to -30.

     Cirstea vs Puig went pretty much after the same pattern like the previous match. Cirstea struggling in the first set, then after some decent holds in the second set i backed her, and again she took the lead in the third set.

     Van der Merwe vs Ebden. I remember the south african from Johannesurg, he's a very limited guy, some decent forehand, good serving, some serve and voley, he's not bad, but nothing special. Ebden took a first tight set, and in the opening game of the second set Van der Merwe broke serve and had 30-0 on his own service. That was my entry point, but again scoreboard was slow and it was actually 30-15 when my bet was matched. Ebden broke immediately and since that time i never had the change to make profit. I had an opening in one game where the south african had some break opportunities and i could reduce my red.

     Cornet vs Manasieva this one was a break feast. Manasieva lost her serve three times every set, Cornet 2 times in the first set and three times in the second. So my strategy here was pretty simple: lay the server.

     It looks like i made some decent profits for three days of trading but I could have easily end with -1k red. Traded like a newbie in a lot of situation, the match was going against me and instead of tacking action reduce my red I was just sitting there waiting for my player to turn the situation in my favor. This is not trading ... this is gambling. A lot of matches ended with a huge red because i followed this pattern which is uncharacteristic for my style of trading.  

 

  

    

        

Week 3

     It's been a really busy week for me, two 250 WTA tournaments and in the weekend the Davis Cup. I never really followed the WTA tour, I was more attracted to men's tennis, and I used to trade only in ATP tournaments, but lately I'm trying to get more familiar with the WTA players, and especially the low ranked players, as I think it women's tennis can offer more opportunities, and definitely more swings in the market. So this 250 tournaments seemed to be a great opportunity (having also live coverage) and it tourned out it to be very profitable. Except for one particular game where the odds were just crazy, i read after the match that there were rumors about one of the players being injured. That could be the explanations. 

     Davis Cup matches were very interesting. Couldn't trade two many markets as a lot of matches were played in the same time, and usually I pick one market and stick to it. Looked like market lost faith in Verdasco at the beginning of the match, i have no idea why. I waited first couple of games to see if hes fit .... looked just fine then i backed 3-0, as Malisse simply doesn't have any weapons to hurt Verdasco. Easy win for the spaniard.

     Johansson vs Gabashvili. 1 day before the game odds were 1.7-2.3. At the beginning of the match odds completely drifted 2.6-1.6. Even though Johansson is a retired players he remains an indoor monster. My entry point was at 2-2, the swede was holding very easy and even though i wasn't sure he can break Gabashvili, i knew that in the tie break the russian will choke. Got out after the second set, as i wasn't sure of the swede's fitness. 

     Saturday i traded only 1 double match: Argentina vs Romania. I backed romanian team after they lost the first set at the odds around 4.5 (which were just insane considering the starting price was 1.8-2.2). I wasn't expecting such an easy victory for the argy team, Tecau is a top 10 double player, and formes a good team with Hanescu.  A big red here and it was only my fault, i had a big chance in the second set to green for +250, but i waited 1 more game then i had to. 

     Johansson vs Andreev here it was just luck. Andreev took the first set 7-6 and was a break up in the second set, and i took the odds of 1.4. I'm sure that whoever left those odds there thought that this is a 3 out of 5 sets match, but it was actually a 3 sets match as Sweden team had 3-0 after the first two days.