marți, 15 martie 2011

Indian Wells - Going against the market

     It's one of the strategies that I like the most, but I have to be really careful when using this strategy, and I have to be comfortable being on red most of the time. When everybody is backing one player, the value is on the other player. However, the player that i am backing must be strong enough to make at least one break, otherwise, as the market is against me, i don't believe i could get a significant profit. Also when i am using this strategy i am willing to lose all my stake in case the match goes against me, as i won't get a decent price to hedge my loss, better let the match run and hope for a comeback.

    We had a very good example yesterday: Malisse vs Devverman. Early in the morning odds were 1.9-2.1 which in my opinion reflected the real chances of the players. At the start of the match odds drifted 1.6-2.6. Devverman served first and took the lead 2-1. At this moment odds on the indian were 2.7 which mean (considering the starting prices and the fact that he was leading) the market was against him. Backed him and greened after the first set. Second set started but the market changed it's opinion everybody was on the indian now. Odds on Malisse at the beginning of the second set were 3.3. After he held serve (yes it wasn't a very comfortable services game) odds raised to 3.5.Backed Malisse and again I was rewarded immediately as the belgian broke in the second game. Waited for the hold then greened again.


Un comentariu:

  1. Hello, nice blog, very interesting reading. Your reading of games is very similar to mine. I thought exactly the same things about the recent matches Devvarman v Malisse, Paszek v Medina Garrigues and a few others. The difference is that you were brave enough to place the trade and I wasn't! I'm going to try and change and go with my gut feelings more, be a bit braver in future, especially laying at low odds. Keep up the good work!

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