27 Feb Evening Session

     Didn't thought i will get involved in any trading tonight as it seemed to me that Del Potro will easily win against Tipsarevic. I was following the match, the commentators were saying that Del Potro looked yesterday very tired, and he never played in this tournament during the day in the heat. So i thought maybe he won't win so easy. I backed Tipsarevic in the first set at 2-1 at the odds 4.4. He immediately broke serve, i waited for the hold then hedged the profit. At the end of the first set I was +150 Euro, but Del Potro was looking very bad, he was struggling, looked like he can't breath, he was trying to end the points very quickly hitting either an unforced error or a winner. So i took 100 of my green from Del Potro and backed Tipsa at the odds of 12. During the second set I had plenty of opportunities the green up for 250+ but again my biggest problem: GOT GREEDY !!! Just 50 euro here.

     Couldn't sleep and I saw some matches with a decent liquidity in Monterrey. So i set myself a challenge: trade on a market where i have no info about the players, never heard of any of them, with small stakes obviously. I was interested in 3 things only: starting price, to see who was the favorite, who will the market favor, score obviously, and the odds.

     Pous Tio vs Detoni, this one was very interesting. First of all let me ask you one question: Pous Tio leads with 6-3 5-3 plus serve, would you give Detoni odds of 100 ? I wouldn't that's for sure. I mean it's not like Caroline Wozniacki plays against Detoni. I backed Detoni with 10 euro. She broke serve held, etc it was now tie break. I intended to wait until the tie break is finished then hedge the profit, all i had to lose were 10 euro. But Detoni took the lead in the tie break 3-1 and the odds became quite acceptable 1.24. (+230 euro from a stake of 10 is not bad is it?) Tried to hedge but my bet was unmatched, then tried again at 1.21 unmatched again AHHHHH low liquidity market. By the time I tried at 1.17 score became 3-2 and the odds were now unacceptable. Unlucky for me, Detoni lost the tie break.

      In the other match, i did some scalping and lay the server as there were many breaks.

      So +150 euro for a night without expectations are more then welcomed. Cheers !

 

26 Feb

     Last day of the second week. Finals day. First of all I must say i really don't like that the finals are played in the same time. Last week ATP final in Rotterdam was played at 16:00 and WTA Dubai 16:30. Today ATP final in Dubai 16:00 and WTA Doha 16:30.

     Wozniacki vs Zvonareva. At the beginning of the match i thought it would be a straight sets victory for the danish player. Didn't backed her before the start as the price was too low and i wanted to see how the start. Well it was obvious she had problems serving in the wind and she's making way too many unforced errors, so i switched to Zvonareva. Looked for a nice entry point, which was right after she broke back in the second set, and backed her.

     So the profit for the second week is +882 not bad, but could have been at least double if i would have traded well the matches: Radwanska v Safarova, Chela v Schwank.
  

25 Feb

     Red day today. Missed read all the matches. I was expecting a very comfortable win for Djokovic, despite the fact that he had problems in the previous rounds, i thought he would raise his level in the semies. Well, he did but only after he lost the first set. I made the mistake to give a chance to Bartoli in the second set, even though it was clear that she's being outmatched by the danish player. I really thought Jankovic has good chances against Zvonareva so i've backed her before the start. Too bad, because i could have taken her at a much better price after she dropped the first set. 

24 Feb

     A few interesting matches for today. I've backed Bartoli before the start as I was really impressed by her consistent game, and her victory from the previous round against Peer where she dropped just 1 game. Wozniacki had a slow start against Penneta, but as soon as she looked signs of coming back I backed her to win the match in straight sets. She had no problems in second set. Hantuchova v Zvonareva was again a very good match for trading. I backed Hatuchova just after she lost the first set. I thought that first set was very tight, she was looking good and had more to offer. I didn't traded the last set as i moved to the match between Simon vs Gasquet, and I felt sorry as it seemed to offer more nice opportunities.

     Jankovic vs Zakopalova. I wanted to back Jankovic, but I missed the first 10 minutes of the game. When i came back the price was already 1.15, way to low for a back. Then in the second set Jankovic felt really bad and I layed her. I thought that even if she will continue the match she will need a few points to recover and the price will dramatically drop. Well as soon as she came back on the field she broke serve. I left the match running hoping she will retire.

23 Feb

     Well, today i have traded the most unusual match i have ever traded: Chela vs Schwank. One day before the match starting price was 1.4-3.4. Well, before the match went in play, there were some rumors, that the match is fixed, that Chela is going to retire, he wants to prepare for the Davis Cup etc, so the odds were now 3.4-1.4. I don't buy that, if the match is fixed for sure not all the internet will know about it. So I backed Chela with 350 euro at the odds of 3.4 at 2-2. He was looking good, holding comfortable, didn't even gave 1 break point first set. I was hoping the odds will dramatically drop after the first set, but it actually didn't even moved. Second set started, Chela broke in the beginning of the set, hold serve, broke again, he was 4-0 in the second set, just two games away from taking the match. I already saw big green in front of my eye, but still the odds were again wrong. I backed Schwank just enough to cover my losses and have a few profit. 5-1 and Schwank was serving, odds on Schwank were somewhere between 5-10 (couldn't even tell the market was really crazy) instead of 100. That seemed to be the best opportunity to hedge my profit. But i didn't, i thought it was going to be just a waste of money, Chela didn't gave 1 bp all match, he's going to win this easy. Well, Schwank took 3 games in a row,it was now 5-4, Chela was going to serve for the match and the odds were 2-2. This is just insane, i'm not going to give half of my profit just because the market is crazy. At that time the match was stopped for about 5 minutes, having no video stream i had to assume that Chela asked for medical time out. Match resumed, Chela was broken, then Schwank held serve, at 6-5 odds were 1.1-11, then Chela retired. Crazy !!! I don't want to comment if the match was or wasn't fixed but for sure it was the most crazy market i've ever traded.

  

22 Feb

     Two matches that ended with a big red. First one: Blake vs Becker, don't know why but i just don't trust Blake so far. He came back after a long injury, having mixed results. I didn't expected such an easy victory against Becker, so as soon as Becker broke first in the second set i backed him. He was broken back next game, and i had to get out with a big red.

     Second match was Llodra vs Djokovic. Llodra seemed to be in a good form, having some nice victories this season, plus he won they're last meeting at the end of last year in Paris. This was Djokovic's first game after winning Australian Open, so i was hoping he would be a bit rusty. Well big mistake for me, as the match was one sided only.

     I compensated this losses with a nice green on Cibulkova. As soon as she was broken in the first set i backed her with full stakes. It is known the fact that she doesn't like the serve, she's much better on return, so a lay looked like a good option. I hedged to profit after she took the first set.

21 Feb

     Well, looking at the profit for today, one could say it has been a pretty good day. Actually it was a horrible day, and i want to take it out of my head as soon as possible.

     Started the day good. I was on Petzschner again, just after he lost the first set. Took out half of my stakes when they got in the tie break and then i left it run till the end. Dimitrov vs Gasquet was a nice gift. Odds on Gasquet raised till 2.3 before the match, because of the rumours regarding his fitness. Waited first game, he looked fine and backed him. It was a very easy game, and the difference of class was obvious. Made a nice profit on Bartoli, who seemed more consistent and making less unforced errors.

     Then came the horror match: Safarova vs Radwanska. At 5-1 first set for Radwanska, Safarova's price was 13.5. Couldn't go any lower then that even if Radwanska would have taken the first set, so i backed her with 100 euro. Well, Safarova came back strongly making 5-5. At that point i hedged my profit for about 500 euro.
She took the first set and i was a little disappointed because I sold so fast. Somewhere at the end of the second set Radwanska took a medical time out. Price on here went up, and i put all the profit that i had from Safarova on Radwanska thinking that, as soon as she get's back on the court price will get back to normal. Well, it didn't and immediately Safarova broke. Had the chance to get some of my green back when Safarova was serving for the set and was 0-30 but I took only with 1/4 stakes. So, a match that could have brought me 500 euro, ended with 90. Huge difference, and it was mind blowing. That explains that big red that i had on Schuttler.